The advance data of the November CPI allows the calculation of how much the 9.8 million pensions will be revalued in 2022. Always bearing in mind that the confirmation will not be published by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) until December 15 , if it is confirmed that inflation in November stood at 5.6%, the payrolls of pensioners will rise by 2.5% next year, when the new revaluation formula agreed by the Toledo Pact begins to be applied and which uses the twelve-month average year-on-year CPI to calculate the hike.
The 12-month average (December 2020-November 2021) is 2.5%. It is the data that the Government was missing and for which the General State Budgets (PGE) of 2022 approved in Congress did not contemplate the specific figure. Yes, the public accounts were already collecting the increase in the minimum and non-contributory, agreed at 3% .
The amount foreseen in the PGE by the Government, calculated on an inflation of 2%, amounted to 171,165 million . In the 2021 Budgets, pension spending was closed at 163,297 million euros , so spending will be substantially higher.
2,000 million to the ‘paguilla’
But in addition, average inflation will mean an extra outlay close to 2,000 million euros that the Executive will have to allocate to the ‘pay’ with which pensioners will be compensated for the deviation in prices with respect to the initial revaluation of pensions : in 2021 the rise was 0.9%, that is, 1.6 points below the average rise in prices. This will be paid in January but with budgetary effect in 2021.
José Luis Escrivá has estimated the ‘paguilla’ at just over 2,000 million euros and has indicated that the forecast for spending on this matter is not going to overflow because Social Security is “clearly collecting more” than estimated, because the economy “It is working better and better.” In addition, he has been convinced that Spain “does not have a serious problem of sustainability of its pensions”.
The disbursement does not end here. The total amount of the pay must be doubled, since the compensation for the deviation in prices must be added the same amount to consolidate the pension payroll for 2022 (another 1,900 million). This places the total total amount at around 3,800 million euros .